The January Numbers are in....let's have a look!
The latest market data is out and we’ll break it all down for you!
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From data to deals, transforming numbers into success in Florida's 2024 real estate market.
The January numbers are in. Let's have a look.
Welcome to the 2024 Florida West Coast Real Estate Forecast. I'm Mike Renick, your dedicated real estate expert, bringing you the latest and most insightful market updates.
In today's episode, we're diving deep into the January numbers, unraveling the trends, and unlocking the powerful strategies to help both buyers and sellers navigate and win in this dynamic market.
Whether you're looking to invest to sell or find your dream home or maybe a second home, you're in the right place. So, let's roll up our sleeves. Explore how you can leverage these market insights to make informed decisions and win big in Florida's ever evolving real estate landscape.
Let's have a look at the numbers. First of all, why do we study the market?
- Most agents know what's happening.
- Good agents understand what's happening.
- but great agents, the ones you need working for, can explain what's happening and they can put together a plan that will achieve the best deal for what you're looking for.
Let's look at the national scene really quick.
We're more focused on Florida's West coast, but nationally right now, my data comes from keeping current matters. I have their permission to show these slides.
They're predicting. This is the year of the fives.
- Five will be the handle or the first number on the mortgage rates by May. Rates will continue to fall. We'll see them in the fives in the first half of this year.
- 5.5 million total homes are forecasted for 2024
- and 5% will be the approximate home price appreciation rate.
Mortgage rates are going to fall. Real estate sales should be strong, and prices will continue to rise.
That's the national scene.
Are we going to see that on Florida's West coast? Let's take a look and we'll find out.
When we look at the overall summary chart, and I did a new chart for this broadcast, when we look at just, this is Sarasota Manatee Counties, it's the area I service. This is a point in time. This is the January data, which is through December 31st, 2023, versus a year ago.
So, a point in time we look at listings, they're up 61%. This is completely opposite the national trend where they're seeing a struggle to get homes on the market. The fact we have more listings that benefits buyers, but sellers can also leverage that. I'll have more to say on that in a minute.
When we look at our past, our current solds, how many sold in the last 30 days, that number's up 3%.
That can benefit both buyers and sellers. More on that in a minute.
Our pending’s, our future sales. What's going to happen over the next 30, 60, 90 days? Right now, it's up 12% over a year ago. Remember, just a point in time, there’s much more information we need to gather.
Price, it's up 9% from a year ago. That does fall in line with the national forecast for 2024. If price is up, even though there's more listings, there's more competition…. More competition.
Sales are relatively up just a little bit. Price is up dramatically, or at least it's up 9%
Days on the market though…. it’s up 39%. It's taking longer to get good listings sold. It's not as easy as it was a couple years ago.
Months of inventory up 33%. That definitely right
there can benefit buyers. So even though these numbers are strong, we're in a mixed balance market. I'll share that in a minute on another slide. But when we look at this, there is a way that buyers can win and there's a way that sellers can win.
Again, this is the overall market for two counties on the islands.
The Islands market is completely different. Your broker needs to be able to drill down to the area you're looking for. We have the ability to do that here at Team Renick.
Let's look at the trends. When we look at the light green lines, those are the listings for sale. We see the blue line I've drawn in there. The trend line is up. The listings continue to go up substantially over the past few months.
When we take a look at the dark green line or the sales, the ones that have sold, that's got a little bit of a downward trend. So it was high more back in
the beginning of 2023. We see it slightly falling,
but it is still up right now. Sales are still up two and a half, 3% from last year.
Let's jump over to the price. Everyone's asking about price prices. I drew a straight line in here, but it's oscillating a little bit. We see price that's been variable from $349 a square foot to 343 as low as 316
back in the July timeframe. We see in the little bit later in the year 328, 329 square foot. So, it's not penalized with a condo versus a home. It's not penalized with a luxury home or maybe someone’s looking for a cabin cottage kind of a thing. So, we're trying to take average price on this thing, average price per square foot to take a look at it. So, price right now, still though, over a year ago where it was $316 a square foot, it's up. But we're not seeing a solid trend going forward. We need to keep an eye on price. What's going to happen with this thing?
When we look right now at Days on the Market, days on the market's relatively steady over the last few months, even though it's up substantially from a year ago. Looking on the first chart for a point in time, it's now important to go deeper into the trends. Where is it headed? Where can we predict, this is going to go in the future?
Months of inventory up substantially. Over the past few months, and definitely up over a year ago, we did see a little bit of a blip downwards from month to month. We'll keep an eye on that.
So, we've got all of this data. What does it mean? We need to develop a plan to win for you. We need to break this down. Are you looking for a condo? You looking for a vacant land piece of land? You looking for a single-family home? What part of the area are you looking at? Because the markets are not the same across the board. There's more challenges out on the island than there are on the mainland. We sell across all properties. We have the background to do this. We need to go further deep dive into what it is you're looking to buy or what you're looking to sell. There's a way that sellers can win by differentiating their listing over everyone else. We have the ability to market it to a very specific group of folks throughout the tools that we have.
When you're a buyer, we have access to all the data and even coming soon listings where we can take a look at and we can find the right property for you.
So, this is just the beginning. I'd like to go further. Feel free to give me a call. It's all about service. It's about providing you with the information that you need, my personal cell, my direct cell, that will allow you to have access to me when it's convenient for you. Because frankly, that's the way it should work, is 941-400-8735.
I want to thank you for watching. This is the beginning of a process and how we can win for our buyers and our sellers. We're happy to go further. You need someone focused on the market that's knowledgeable on the market, and most importantly, how to turn this data into a plan that you'll win.
Again. Take care everyone. Feel free to give me a call. Until next time, thanks for watching.
