Fla.’s Consumers Were Slightly Less Confident in Aug.

Overall consumer sentiment among Floridians fell 2.1 points to 80.5 in the latest UF index, but there’s hope: Two timeline expectations for the future U.S. economy rose.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Consumer sentiment among Floridians dipped for a consecutive month in August at 78.4 – 2.1 points lower than a revised figure of 80.5 in July.

Among the five components that make up the index, two increased and three decreased.

Current conditions: Floridians’ opinions about personal finances now compared with a year ago decreased 5.7 points from 73.4 to 67.7. It’s the steepest decline in this month’s reading.

Similarly, opinions as to whether this is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance dropped 3.8 points from 74.5 to 70.7. Both downward readings were divided across different sociodemographic groups; however, people with income levels of $50,000 and over reported considerably more pessimistic views.

Future expectations: While Floridians aren’t sure about their own financial future, they expect the U.S. to improve over the short- and long-term.

Expectations about their personal financial situation a year from now decreased 4.9 points from 94.9 to 90, a trend was shared across all demographic groups for Floridians.

On the other, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 3 points from 74.7 to 77.7. Similarly, the outlook for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years inched up nine-tenths of a point from 85.2 to 86.1. The upward readings were split across sociodemographic groups, but with no discernible pattern.

“Most of the pessimism in August stems from Floridians’ views about their current economic conditions, particularly from opinions about their personal financial situation now compared with a year ago. Notably, this component of the index reached its lowest level since February 2014,” says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

“The decline in consumer sentiment, particularly in Floridians’ views about their personal finances, come as no surprise,” Sandoval adds. “The resulting loss of tourism business from the pandemic has continued to severely impact Florida’s economy. The state’s unemployment rate remained at historically high levels in July; coupled with the expiration of the weekly $600 in enhanced unemployment benefits from the federal government at the end of July, the economic situation deteriorated for those out of work.”

Still, Florida’s labor market showed signs of recovery in August, Sandoval says. “The noticeable downward trend in weekly claims of unemployment benefits and continued claims experienced in August describes an improved economic situation. However, both indicators remain well above pre-pandemic levels, signaling a slow recovery pace.

Overall, Sandoval says Florida’s “economic prospects remained depressed … but important signs of an improved labor market appeared in August.”

In a look at the future, Sandoval believes federally backed unemployment benefits of $300 per week should help workers currently out of work, and “we anticipate an improvement in the financial situation for those out of work and a slight increase in consumer confidence. Nonetheless, we expect consumer sentiment to remain far from pre-pandemic levels for a while,”

Conducted August 1-27, the UF study reflects the responses of 180 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 252 individuals reached through an online panel, a total 432 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.

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