Oct. Fla. Consumer Confidence Dips After Surge in Sept.

By Kerry Smith

Fla. consumer sentiment declined 2 points after the largest one-month gain on record. Researchers now have their eyes on Nov. and the possible impact of U.S. elections.

GAINESVILLE, Fla. – After the largest one-month consumer confidence gain since the pandemic started in September, consumer sentiment among Floridians dropped 2 points in October to 84.4 from a revised September figure of 86.4.

Among the five components that make up the index, one increased and four decreased.

Current conditions: Both of the two components measuring Floridians’ views about current economic conditions weakened in October. Views of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago dropped 3.7 points from 71.1 to 67.4. This opinion is shared by all Floridians, but it’s particularly stronger among people age 60 and older women and those with an annual income under $50,000.

Opinions on whether it’s a good time to buy a big-ticket household item such as an appliance decreased 2.3 points (from 80 to 77.7) and split across age and income levels. While people younger than 60 and people with an annual income over $50,000 reported a small positive change, there were notable declines among people older than 60 and those with an income under $50,000.

Future expectations: Floridians’ opinions about future economic conditions were mixed in October.

Attitudes about personal finances one year from now increased 1 point from 97.1 to 98.1, the only uptick in this month’s report. However, again, people older than 60 and those with an income under $50,000 expressed less-favorable views.

Expectations about the U.S. economy over the next year dropped 3.7 points from 90.7 to 87, while the outlook for U.S. economic conditions over the next five years decreased 1.6 points from 93.3 to 91.7. The downward trends were largely shared by all Floridians except women and people with an annual income over $50,000, whose readings were more optimistic regarding long-term national economic conditions.

“While responses to some of the questions of the index were split across sociodemographic groups, people age 60 and older and people with an annual income under $50,000 consistently reported less-favorable views across all five questions,” says Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

Sandoval calls the results “consistent with the ‘K-shaped’ recovery that economists are talking about, meaning economic conditions improve for well-educated, higher-skill and higher-wage workers while hard times continue for the rest.”

With the 2020 holidays season on the horizon, Sandoval says one finding is potentially negative for retailers this year – whether it’s a good time to buy a big-ticket item.

“This (big-ticket-item) question of the index reached its lowest level on record in April, when it tumbled 60.5 points with respect to February. It has since bottomed out but has only recovered to about half of the levels recorded before the pandemic started,” Sandoval says.

“Looking ahead, November’s consumer sentiment reading will be very important to gauge Floridians’ opinions and expectations about their economic prospects after the presidential election,” Sandoval adds.

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